Richard V. Rupp

March 20, 2024

I'm Richard V. Rupp, writing to you from Burbank, California.

 

It's a beautiful first full day of spring here in Burbank.

 

And, no, that is not my usual masthead. It is a picture of my father. Check out the BELIEVE IT OR NOT section below to figure out why I'm using it.

 

This is the March edition of RUPP'S NOTES & FBI AGENT HARTMANN SERIES posts, which are issued on the third Wednesday of every month. This newsletter is about what this writer and published author is thinking and working on. I look forward to continuing to communicate with you and hope you enjoy my thoughts.

 

In looking at the notes I made to prepare this issue, the phrase "divide and conquer" came to mind. We have numerous groups, ranging from government to gender to religious to weirdos to generations, trying to divide us in an attempt to gain some form of control. The phrase "divide and conquer" refers to a strategy by which someone maintains power by causing disagreements among other people. The goal is to prevent them from uniting and opposing the person in power.

 

The cover of the March 15th edition of THE WEEK has a headline: "Separate worlds – How the growing political gender gap is pushing young men and women apart." The edition Editor's Letter includes this – "I couldn't help but think about how nice it would be to escape the anger, violence, and madness of the 'civilized' world. That fantasy, it seems, is widely shared. Exhausted and heartsick, many people are tuning out the grim news about politics, Gaza, Ukraine, and climate change, and musing with friends about where to flee."

 

BELIEVE IT OR NOT

 

The Kate Middleton photo fiasco of a digitally altered family photo certainly makes us consider whether it is real or enhanced when looking at any photo today.

 

But this question is not new. My father was a movie studio still photographer who retired from Warner Bros. in 1958. I have boxes of black-and-white glossy photos he took. One of them is a picture of him looking at himself (see above). I suspect it was produced in the darkroom/still photo lab he had constructed as part of our garage at our home in West Hollywood. This photo was probably produced in the late 30s or early 40s. You would believe that it was twin brothers looking at each other. Yes, photo editing has existed for a long time—way before digital photography. I can remember my father using an airbrush to remove moles, scars, and other blemishes from a movie star's face. He also used a fine paintbrush, dyes, and other materials to modify negatives.

 

We used to say, "A picture is worth a thousand words." Today, you need to be careful about what words are conveyed. Historically, a picture was thought more effective and believable than a verbal description. I look at pictures posted on Facebook and swear more than half of them have been altered. Today, our minds are constantly being challenged regarding reality. According to an article I read, trying to determine the truth and reality today is creating extreme stress and anxiety, particularly for young people.

 

HANY FARID, a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY, a professor who specializes in media forensics, indicates that "By eye, you're not going to be able to figure out what's real with any reliability whatsoever."

 

Even experts in digital forensics are having a hard time figuring out if a photo has been altered. CHRISTOPHER LOOFT, coordinating producer of the visual verification unit at ABC NEWS, indicates that "Generative artificial intelligence is advancing at such a rate that the 'tells' we'd look for a year ago are probably out of date by now."

 

We have moved from airbrushing and fine paintbrushes on cellulose negatives to Photoshop digital modifications to generative AI that can produce photos using algorithms. If you want, you can design the perfect person, or any person for that matter.

 

INFORMATION OVERLOAD

 

Moving from manipulating photos to manipulating words. Our political parties and special interest groups have gleaned the concept of a "divide and conquer" strategy that is causing division among individuals. It involves providing humans with too much data. Recently, scientists measured the amount of data that enters the brain and found that an average person living today processes as much as 74 GB of information a day (that is as much as watching 16 movies) through TV, computers, cell phones, tablets, billboards, and many other gadgets. Every year, this is about 5% more than the previous year. This is resulting in "cognitive overload."

 

"Cognitive overload" is a phenomenon that occurs when we are inundated with more information than our brains can effectively process. So much data is provided that eventually, you reach a point where you can't absorb anymore. Factors contributing to this overload include the availability of information through TV, the Internet, and social media channels.

 

One of the major problems today is that much of the data being provided to us is slanted or false. That means we must try to figure it out and determine whether it is correct.

 

I'm going off on one of my tangents. The "Believe it or Not" and "Information Overload" problems may be a reason young people like virtual reality. At least they can control what they want to see.

 

The opening lines from my novel SKYWARD are: The metal door slid open as she approached. She raised her touch-fastener-soled boot and stepped across the threshold to Holograph Room 7 on Space Cruise Ship No. 23's Central Module. "Welcome Senior Team member Madison Bowman of the First Pioneer Unit," said the room's ratiocinative robot-generated voice in clear, crisp, unemotional, perfect diction. "You are on time for your Ultimate Mobility Vehicle class. I like timeliness in humans."

 

She waited for the door to slide shut before speaking. "Holograph, I want to change today's assignment."

 

"That is very unusual. I don't like unusual in humans."

 

WILL THERE BE ANOTHER HOLLYWOOD STRIKE?

 

Things are still not back to normal in the Hollywood movie business. The union my dad helped bring to Hollywood and of which my son Brian is a member, the INTERNATIONAL ALLIANCE OF THEATRICAL STAGE EMPLOYEES (IATSE), is getting ready to go on strike if current negotiations with the studios don't work out. Next month, the guild will begin negotiating two major labor contracts with the ALLIANCE OF MOTION PICTURE AND TELEVISION PRODUCERS: the Basic Agreement and the Area Standards Agreement. Both current contracts are set to expire on July 31.

 

Many of my Story Tavern friends are members of IATSE. Many others are members of the SCREEN ACTORS GUILD (SAG) who would again be out of work if IATSE strikes. There are a lot of fingers crossed for getting a signed agreement.

 

For those outside the movie business, IATSE is a guild representing over 170,000 technicians, artisans, and craftspersons in the entertainment industry, including live events, motion picture and television production, broadcast, and trade shows in the United States and Canada. They are the behind-the-camera or backstage crew.

 

DISINTERESTED ELECTORS

 

SKYWARD, the novel I've long been working on, involves a group of STEM-educated Millennials and Gen Zs questioning what form of government they want to establish as they establish their own colony on the Moon. They are establishing the Moon colony to flee from an "Earth with an expiration date." The Super Tuesday election indicates to me that my plot is right on target.

 

According to preliminary numbers from the California Secretary of State's Office, only 20% of registered voters participated in the Super Tuesday primary election. The report also indicates that there was a very low turnout from younger voters.

 

Politicians and their two political parties have turned people off from voting, which is the key to a democracy. Small extremist groups within each party have taken over control and offer candidates that the majority of people do not want.

 

GABRIEL RAVEL, Deputy Secretary and General Counsel of the CALIFORNIA GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS AGENCY said, "It really is a detriment to our country that people are not motivated enough to vote or (they do not) think it will make a difference."

 

Then there is a WALL STREET JOURNAL article titled "The Rough Years That Turned Gen Z into America's Most Disillusioned Voters, which indicates that "' Young Americans' entire political memories are subsumed by intense partisanship and warnings about the looming end of everything from U.S. democracy to the planet. When the darkest days of the pandemic started to end, inflation reached 40-year highs. The right to an abortion was overturned. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East raged. All of the turmoil is being broadcast — sometimes with almost apocalyptic language or graphic video — on social media."

 

GENERATION NAMES

 

If you are like me, I'm always confused about who belongs where in the definition of generations. Here's a chart I found that I keep on my desk. In looking at it I have no idea of how they selected the names nor the dates.

 

The Lost Generation - 1883-1900

The Greatest Generation - 1901-1927

The Silent Generation - 1928-1945

Baby Boomers - 1946-1964

Gen X - 1965-1980

Millennials - 1981-1996

Gen Z - 1997-2012

Gen Alpha - Early 2020s -2025

 

 

I'm not sure I like being part of the "Silent Generation." I have always thought that I was very vocal. I just read an article in HISTORY FACTS about my generation – "dating was governed by a set of traditions and rules that reflected a postwar society that emphasized stability and conformity and was largely influenced by the era's adherence to traditional gender roles. Men were expected to take the lead, covering the bills, and demonstrating chivalry, while women were held to standards of modesty and femininity." 

 

Yes, times have changed.

 

BOOK BANS INCREASE

 

I am a member of the AUTHORS GUILD, and this is from the most recent newsletter they sent me –

 

"The AUTHORS GUILD joins the AMERICAN LIBRARY ASSOCIATION (ALA) in its dismay over the record number of book bans in 2023. The ALA's report shows that the number of titles targeted for censorship surged 65 percent in 2023 as compared to 2022, reaching the highest levels ever documented by the ALA. These new numbers show that efforts were made to censor 4,240 unique book titles in schools and libraries.

 

This increase in censorship efforts calls for a corresponding increase in efforts to combat them. The Authors Guild has long held that a healthy democracy requires vigorous literary debate, diversity of ideas, and a tolerance for discourse that some may find offensive or challenging. A few individuals should not be allowed to limit the marketplace of ideas to ones that they find acceptable. Regardless of one's political, social, or religious views, suppressing books is anti-democratic, harmful, and a dangerous step toward autocracy. While parents have the right to decide what their own children may read, individual citizens should not have the right to remove books from schools and libraries and prevent other people's children from having access to them.

 

We urge those who are challenging books to consider the First Amendment ramifications and the precedent created by book removals. We also ask them to respect the expertise of educators who are trained to review and assess books and determine their appropriateness for various age groups. If you want to help combat censorship, we urge members to let us know when they become aware of such efforts in their areas so the Guild can speak out and act accordingly." 

 

FOR MY OLD INSURANCE/RISK MANAGEMENT FRIENDS THE BUSINESS MODEL IS BROKEN

 

I've addressed this subject before, but two things caught my eye this month. One was a newsletter to me from KATHRYN BARGER, my LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUPERVISOR, that starts out -

 

Dear Friends,

It's no secret that insurance providers have become more conservative because of increased wildfire threats across our county and state. As a result, homeowners are put in a tough position: pay higher premiums and comply with varied, costly, and inconsistent mitigation requirements or lose your insurance. I've heard from many of my constituents districtwide who are facing steep cost increases or being dropped altogether by their insurance carriers and left to fend for themselves. A constituent recently called my office and cited a 600% increase in the annual premium for insurance for homeowners in Pasadena. That's simply unacceptable. 

Then there was an editorial in the LA DAILY NEWS by MELISSA MELENDEZ, who previously served as a California state senator and assemblymember and is now the executive director of the California Chapter of the AMERICA FIRST POLICY INSTITUTE.

 

Note: For the insurance business model to work, this part of the concept of an insurable risk must work - RUPP'S INSURANCE AND RISK MANAGEMENT GLOSSARY – "The risk must not be subject to a catastrophic loss where a large number of exposure units can be damaged or destroyed in a single event."

 

Here are excerpts from the Melendez editorial -  

 

"Have you been dropped by your homeowner's insurance company? You are not alone, California is in the grip of a home insurance crisis, with insurers abandoning the state's market at an alarming rate. Daily headlines announce the withdrawal of major insurance companies from California, leaving homeowners scrambling for coverage. USAA, Allstate, and State Farm have either stopped writing new homeowner's policies altogether or they have drastically limited coverage for policies they offer. But why are these insurance giants fleeing the nation's largest insurance market? The answer lies in the state's extreme losses, particularly stemming from the severe wildfires that ravaged California in recent years.

 

CALIFORNIA INSURANCE COMMISSIONER RICARDO LARA indicated at a news conference "that insurance companies have seen their losses skyrocket, exceeding $15 billion in 2017 and $13 billion in 2018. These losses far exceed those of previous years, highlighting the severity of the situation."

 

. . .California's leaders have opted for more interventionist measures, exacerbating the crisis. Under California's regulatory framework, insurance rate hikes exceeding 7% require approval from the state's elected insurance commissioner. Additionally, Proposition 103, passed in 1988, imposes stringent requirements on insurers, hindering their ability to adjust rates to reflect the escalating wildfire risk. As a result, insurers find themselves grappling with insufficient rate increases to cover losses and future risks, leading to desperate measures such as policy cancellations and stringent property inspections to identify non-compliance issues.

 

Lawmakers should approach insurance reform thoughtfully and prioritize solutions that protect homeowners' interests while effectively addressing our state's underlying challenges. Any reforms need to strike a balance between stabilizing the insurance market and ensuring affordability and accessibility for Californians.

 

My comments to the editorial are, "Good luck." With the population increase and the construction of affordable housing units, you have a built-in catastrophic loss scenario. From estimates, I have seen that it would take greater than a 20% rate increase to make homeowners insurance work. The average family cannot afford to pay the needed amount in today's economy. Goodbye, insurance companies. Hello, government.

 

MIGRATION – THE WORLD IS ON THE MOVE

 

A large part of the world is on the move as overpopulation is creating starvation, criminal cartels expand internationally, and the evaporation of democracy combines to discriminate against and murder those they do not like.

 

Since my last post, the European Union has been facing a surge in migrants crossing the Mediterranean, and FBI DIRECTOR CHRIS WRAY has testified to a U.S. Senate panel on "Worldwide Threats" that "We have had dangerous individuals entering the United States from a variety of sources." And, NEW YORK CITY, MAYOR ERIC ADAMS, during a community meeting, said that "the ongoing migrant crisis will destroy NYC. Never in my life have I had a problem that I didn't see an ending to. I don't see an ending to this. This issue will destroy New York City."

 

A part of the story I tell in my novel SKYWARD, involves the above.

 

GRIN AND BEER IT

 

Finally, for those who follow my posts, you know my favorite hangout is Story Tavern, which is easy walking distance for me. In fact, I enjoyed St. Paddy's Day there. The corned beef and cabbage, accompanied by Guinness, were great.

 

However, I have noticed that the younger crowd seems to like cider drinks more than malted beverages. I just read that Gen Z does not like beer and that breweries and taprooms are closing like crazy. Just a few years back, craft breweries were opening all over the place. Now they are closing. Anchor Brewery, considered the original craft brewery, was put on the auction block a few months back, and so far, there have been zero bids. In 2023, beer consumption dropped to its lowest volume since 1999.  

 

I still like good beer. While I had Guinness on St. Paddy's Day, the Story Tavern staff turned me on to Avery White Rascal beer some time back. I'm not sure if their selection "for me" was based on the type of beer or the fact it was called "white rascal."

 

If you are interested, it is an authentic Belgian-style white ale cleverly spiced with coriander and Curaçao orange peel, producing a refreshingly zesty taste. This is it.

 

If you are new to my posts and find this one interesting, you can read my prior posts, learn about my novels, and learn more about me on my website at www.richardvrupp.com. You can also sign up in the Rupp's Notes section to get my posts directly.

 

I'm looking forward to March Madness.

 

Cheers,

 

Richard V. Rupp, Author

Website – www.richardvrupp.com

Email – rupprisk@gmail.com

Copyright@2024 by Richard V. Rupp