Richard V. Rupp

October 16, 2024

I'm novelist Richard V. Rupp, writing to you from Burbank, California – "Media Capital of the World."

 

Welcome to my monthly newsletter, published on the third Wednesday of each month.

 

My research for this post sent me off on many unexpected tangents. It all started with an article in which former GOOGLE CEO ERIC SCHMIDT indicates that the energy demand for AI is infinite, and we are never going to meet our climate goals anyway, so we may as well bet on building AI to solve the problem.

 

This post is about two words or concepts that immensely impact humans – "energy" and "power." My tangents were triggered by mixing "physical" and "mental" with "energy" and "power." Think about the most popular movies today – For several years, no genre has dominated popular culture like superhero stories. Superheroes are everywhere, from comic books to video games, TV shows, and theme park attractions. 

 

Human beings, by their nature, have sought energy and power since their creation. The human mind was designed to be creative. To explore and develop new things.  

 

ENERGY & POWER

 

We humans dream of having superpowers. I don't care how much time you spend at the gym; it isn't going to get you to the superpower level. However, our ability to generate energy beyond our muscles is the key to our advancement. The more energy we can generate, the more advanced we will become. We humans, by our nature, want advancement over anything else. Just look at our history.

 

But the more energy we generate planetwide, the more climate problems we will create. Mentally, we want to solve climate problems, but realistically, that effort is wasted. The concept of trying to "keep up with the Joneses" and advancement will win out.

 

What are energy and power? I pulled out my old leather-bound (gifted) AMERICAN HERITAGE DICTONARY to get me started in answering this question. Energy is "the capability for doing work." Power is "the ability or capacity to do something."

 

Going back to Schmidt's article, he concludes, "My own opinion is that we're not going to hit the climate goals anyway because we are not organized to do it. And yes, the needs in this area [AI] will be a problem. But I'd rather bet on AI solving the problem than constraining it."

 

I concur with Schmidt's belief that we are "not going to hit the climate goals" because our world is made up of "superpowers" (e.g., the United States, China, Russia, India, Saudi Arabia) and emerging powers (e.g., Afghanistan, Brazil, Laos, Uganda) that will continue to use fossil fuels either for economic benefit or because the alternative is too expensive for their economies. I don't care how passionate groups are about "climate change," they are not going to swing the powers that be into doing what they want.

 

Will humans continue to develop more "energy" and "power?" Yes, we will.

 

Will "supercomputer"-generated AI recommend developing underground cities with protected atmospheres while our planet's unlivable surface is filled with wind, nuclear, and solar panel farms? Will it recommend humans colonize space to survive? My gut says this is a real possibility.

 

That's why I'm writing SKYWARD—THE EARTH HAS AN EXPIRATION DATE. It's a tale about a bright young group dedicated to the colonization of space and their trials and tribulations in their effort to do so. It also comments on the subjects addressed in this post.

 

SUPERCOMPUTERS PLUS

 

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has created a demand for "supercomputers"—computing systems that contain tens of thousands of processors and can perform trillions of calculations per second. The configuration of such computers can contain over 50 miles of fiber-optic cables, weigh as much as a half-million pounds, and require 6,000 square feet of floor space.

 

A major problem for "supercomputers" is that they use a lot of electrical energy, generating a lot of heat, which requires massive cooling systems. On average, a typical supercomputer consumes between 1 and 10 megawatts of power, equal to the electricity needs of almost 10,000 homes.

 

But hold on. We are moving beyond supercomputers to "exascale supercomputers" that can solve calculations five times faster than today's top supercomputers. In 2022, the first of these computers, the "Frontier," became operational at the OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY in Tennessee. It is the most powerful computer system in the world. It consumes around 21 megawatts of power, equivalent to the energy needed for 15,000 single-family homes and takes up 7,300 square feet of floor space.

 

A second exascale supercomputer, "Aurora," is now up and running in Illinois. The DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY supports both Frontier and Aurora. The massive computing power of Frontier and Aurora is expected to help uncover insights into complex systems, including climate change, artificial intelligence, and molecular-level medicine. The computing power of the exascale supercomputers is believed to be comparable to that of the human brain.

 

Google plans to invest in nuclear power to fuel its AI ambitions. They have signed a deal with Kairos Power to develop small nuclear reactors to generate the vast amount of energy needed to power their AI data centers. MICHAEL TERRELL, SENIOR DIRECTOR FOR ENERGY AND CLIMATE at Google, indicates," The grid needs new electricity sources to support AI technologies. GOLDMAN SACHS states, "Global energy consumption by data centers is expected to more than double by the decade's end. At the 2023 UNITED NATIONS CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE, most countries indicated that they want to triple their nuclear energy capacity by 2050 to move away from fossil fuels.

 

 

THEN THERE IS YOU

 

You might as well embrace AI. It will give you a superpower. I have used it to help me write this post. If you are going to enjoy life in our changing society, you will need it. Future generations will need it to get a good-paying job or understand what's happening around them.

 

At this year's CONSUMER ELECTRONICS SHOW, MICROSOFT announced a big change in their Windows keyboard, a dedicated key to launching its AI tool, COPILOT (which I use). Microsoft indicates that Copilot will usher in a significant shift toward a more personal and intelligent computing future where AI will be seamlessly woven into Windows. This will simplify people's computing experience and amplify it, making 2024 the year of the AI PC."

 

Microsoft says, "Generative AI is a new type of artificial intelligence (AI) that uses algorithms to generate original text, images, software code, Excel formulas, and even music from a simple text prompt. Generative AI applications like ChatGPT have been "trained" on massive amounts of data and can produce human-quality content in seconds."

 

TED ROSS, GENERAL MANAGER OF LOS ANGELES' INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AGENCY, says, "Every business and consumer app user will be using AI and won't know it. I predict that artificial intelligence features and high-visibility AI platforms, such as ChatGPT, will rapidly integrate into existing business and consumer applications with the user often unaware."

 

WHERE HAVE ALL THE CHILDREN GONE?

 

More energy and power production reflect where our Earth is headed—not in a good direction, as it respects its habitability. Whether they admit it or not, our educated younger generations are reacting to what's happening. Recently, I have read several articles that indicate that the birth rate in developing countries (including the United States) is declining while staying the same for underdeveloped countries.  

 

In the United States, the general fertility rate has decreased by 3% since 2022, reaching a historic low. This marks the second consecutive year of decline, following a brief 1% increase from 2020 to 2021. From 2014 to 2020, the rate consistently decreased by 2% annually.

 

A study published in THE LANCET indicates, "Human birth rates will continue to drop drastically over the coming century, and within just 25 years, over two-thirds of developed countries' populations will be in decline." Wealth, education, female labor participation, urban living, intelligence, women's rights, and access to family planning services are suggested as the principal causes of these birth rate declines.

 

POPULATION STATISTIAN NATALIA BHATTACHAREE, with the INSTITUTE FOR HEALTH METRICS AND EVALUATION in the United States, indicates that "These future trends in fertility rates and live births will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power and will necessitate reorganizing societies." One study on the declining United States population indicates that it could strain future social security funding and limit economic growth. The UN estimates Europe's population will decrease by about 40 million by 2050.

 

In an attempt to reverse the declining birth rates, or as one study terms it, the "pause on parenthood," Russia, China, Hungary, and South Korea offer subsidies and additional benefits to growing families, but apparently with little success.

 

Another problem arising in conjunction with the declining birth rate is the reconfiguration of the world population. This is causing what is called the "brain drain," where the educated of an underdeveloped country move to a developing country. This has a devastating effect on the economy of the underdeveloped country.

 

MY OLD GIG IS SUFFERING

 

I continue to monitor what's happening in the insurance/risk management business. Consumers and legislators constantly complain about rising insurance premiums and the unavailability of insurance.

 

The problem is that the traditional insurance model does not work with the new climate (wind, wildfire, flooding) and social violence (mass store lootings) exposures.

 

The losses just keep mounting. Commercial insured losses from Hurricane Milton, the second major hurricane to make landfall in Florida in just two weeks, will be close to $36 billion, catastrophe modeling company KAREN CLARKE & CO. has indicated.

 

Because of the need for subsidies, more traditional insurance products will be replaced by government programs. I'm unsure if the concept of individual state insurance control is any longer realistic. Insurance premiums will be replaced by governmental taxes.

 

GO DODGERS

 

I like to think I'm a "glass half full" guy, but I must admit this post is definitely a "glass half empty" story. This thought pattern may continue next month as, for some reason, my mind has gone to "basement housing" or "underground housing complexes" and "tunneling." Hello, Elon Musk.

 

If you are new to my posts and find this one interesting, you can read my prior posts, learn about my novels, and learn more about me on my website at www.richardvrupp.com. You can also sign up in the RUPP'S NOTES section to get my posts directly.

 

For those of you who have not read my novels, they are available on Amazon.com. Amazon.com: Richard V. Rupp: books, biography, latest update 

 

Until next month.

 

Cheers, 

 

Richard V. Rupp, Author

Website – www.richardvrupp.com

Email – rupprisk@gmail.com

Copyright@2024 by Richard V. Rupp